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richard
Wow just when we thought things were heading south, we get some encouraging economic news. As of Friday May 30, 2008, we are sitting at 1400 on the S&P 500. A bounce off the 50 day moving average was expected, but a continued move past 1390 surprised me.
On Tuesday I left this comment under my most recent article:
We are getting a nice bounce off the 50 day moving average on the S&P. The NASDAQ is bouncing off support, this is a good time to look into shorting.
As you may already know, I was shorting the NASDAQ and on late Wednesday I added to my short position and shorted the Russel 2000 as well. On Wednesday Dylan, one of my guest writers, left this comment:
I think this week is going to end up pretty rough for people who are holding long positions. I think the Nasdaq is in the process of forming a right shoulder in a head and shoulders pattern. The S&P500 is butting up against resistance at 1390 (the same support level that was holding it up this same time two weeks ago). The DOW is also nearing some minor longer term resistance. It may be tomorrow, Friday, or perhaps as late as early next week, but I think we may be in for a bit of a wild ride to the downside. Keep your eyes open for reversal patterns, as this upcoming bearish turn to the market has not really begun yet.
The inverted head and shoulders pattern Dylan is refering to is this:
It`s fair to say that this move past 1390 (major resistance) is not a good sign for short sellers but we have not closed past 1400. Some believe that 1400 is actually the major resistance, so a close above this level would be a win for the bulls, and a retest of those 1440 highs would be likely. Speaking of closing above 1400, I was nervous on Thursday, the markets looked a bit too positive as it hovered above 1400 for some time. I considered getting out of QID and TWM but decided to wait until the close. We are at another critical point in the markets, the best thing to do is to wait for confirmation. Reacting too early may cost you a lot of money, I have a feeling that this move up may be a trap. People who decided to go long these past two days may get trapped in a sudden reversal. 1400 should continue to act as resistance, so more sideways action or a quick reversal is likely to happen. Further, the Nasdaq is forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern as mentioned above. In the shorter timeframes there are a lot of mixed signals, but the long-term trend is still down so further weakness should occur. This upward move was on lighter volume so again I would not go long until we officially break major resistance levels because a drop could be pretty rapid.
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richard[at]hedgeagainstspeculation.com
May 31st, 2008 at 4:03 pm
[…] Hedge Against Speculation: “It`s fair to say that this move past 1390 (major resistance) is not a good sign for short sellers but we have not closed past 1400. Some believe that 1400 is actually the major resistance, so a close above this level would be a win for the bulls, and a retest of those 1440 highs would be likely.” […]
June 5th, 2008 at 11:46 pm
I think the buying today was largely due to the upcoming jobs report. I don’t think the jobs report will show -60,000 non-farm payroll. It will probably be negative, but “not impending doom”. Having said that I wouldn’t want to be short. I sold all my short positions a few days ago. Just a little to scary to go in short. Not only can good news kill you, not-so-bad news could also bury you. Be long if anything. Be short at your own risk.
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