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richard
After some fierce fighting between the bulls and bears in the past few trading days, I have come to the conclusion that the bulls are ahead. But will they win this battle? I wouldn`t bet on it. If we close above 1360 in the S&P500 early April, expect a bull run. The push up will test the 1400 mark and if we get lucky we will break this level. This bullish sentiment could last up to two months and what happens after this rally depends on economic variables. I have, and will continue to think bearish…so if you`re asking for my opinion, I think after this run up we will jet to the downside. I`m expecting this run to the downside to be a very nasty one, one that will be testing some low lows before heading to the upside for good.
As you can see, there are many variables involved…so if the S&P doesn`t break the important 1360 level in the near future, none of this will happen and a new strategy will have to be formed. Anyways, as mentioned in one of my previous posts, I will be blogging less the following month because of finals. But do come back because I`ve hand picked a few of my favourite writers to guest write for Hedge Against Speculation so this blog will still be updated regularly. Oh and feel free to chat with me, drop a comment or enter into this month`s contest! There have yet to be any entries for my April contest, so come on people, the more entries I get the bigger the prizes will be in the future!!
(If you`re interested in becoming a guest or permanent writer for Hedge Against Speculation, email me: richard@hedgeagainstspeculation.com Ask about the benefits you get for being a writer on HAS. Further, if you`d like to donate a prize to my current or future contests, simply email me. Being a contest sponsor is a good way to promote your product or website.)
March 25th, 2008 at 6:58 am
Yeah I am generally a bullish thinker, but for some reason I can’t help but have a bearish outlook when it comes to this current market.
March 26th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Looking at the chart here, it looks like the S&P is testing resistance at 1325. I am looking at this chart on 3/26/2008, and find your analysis to be right on with respect to where the market will move to next. As much as i would love for the index to run up to and break 1400 (because i find that in general, markets in an up trend are less chaotic then those in a down trend, ie the 400 point move we saw the other week) i continue to hold major reservations as to the strength of this recovery. I see it more as shorts taking profits, with another drop soon to come.
March 26th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
Dylan, I would have to agree with you 100%. I did post an article about testing 1325 a little while back, and yes, I think we are going back to retesting this mark. There hasn`t been enough strength and support for the market to push past 1360, this is why I am back to going short. It would`ve been nice if everything worked as planned…but oh well.
April 1st, 2008 at 6:12 am
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