So as some of you may already know I just came back from Vegas and a golf trip. I do apologize for the lack of posts but not too much has changed since my last post.

The S&P500 has retraced back to its MA(50), or at least it’s close to its 50-day-moving-average. This took a week longer than I expected it to, but after a sequence of up and down days we’re finally there. I’m disappointed I didn’t make much during this bounce, in fact I pretty much broke even. But breaking even in this bumpy market isn’t all that bad.

So the Federal Reserve left key interest rates unchanged at 2% for the second straight meeting. This along with oil pretty much ruled the markets today and gave it a little push up. Crude plowed through the $120 support level…Bloomberg said this is a bearish sign. Bloomberg also says if it breaks the 116 level, it could fall to 100, where there is a history of consolidation. Falling to 100 wouldn’t surprise me but I think the days of oil below 100 are over. Lower oil prices should yield higher indices, but I would be careful this coming week especially as we approach the MA(50). We are in a bear rally but I would be careful to go full steam…I’m getting prepared for another leg down.

Oh and traders, if you’re interested in being a guest writer on Hedge Against Speculation send me an email

Richard
richard[at]hedgeagainstspeculation.com